Gold investors need to wait a few weeks before the market is ready to move past its summer lulls according to a gold market analyst.
An exclusive interview with head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, George Milling-Stanley said he expects the buying momentum to increase by the end of September. This is after the Federal Reserve raises its interest rates for the third time this year. Also, physical demand for high ranking gold consumers nations increase in prep for upcoming, important holidays.
The summer despondency for gold can’t get here fast enough as the market is in a four-month downtrend. Looking ahead, however, Milling-Stanley says the market could recover as quickly as it sold off. He also says that the price of gold could climb back to $1,350 by the year’s end. However, the first hurdle is at $1,250 an ounce.
Milling-Stanley says the $1,350 depends on how fast momentum in the marketplace builds. He along with others in the gold industry will be relieved to see prices cross the $1,250 threshold, as the mid-point of the trading range since the middle of 2013.
Despite Lulls in Summer Pricing, Gold is likely to See Two More Rate Hikes in 2018
These comments arrive as the price of gold is holding above the critical support of $1,200 per ounce. Prices have dropped from the recent two-week high as the USD attracts new interest during the middle of the growing currency crisis in a few emerging markets.
Some investors have an optimistic view that the increasing uncertainty of the emerging market could support the price of gold by making the Federal Reserve halt raising interest rates. Milling-Stanley, however, says he is still uncertain this could change the U.S. monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve has its policy to benefit its own country. The economy of the U.S. is the Reserve’s primary concern. Because of that, we should see rates rising in September with a fourth one later on in December.
As of now, markets are pricing in an over 90% chance of a rate hike for September. They only have a 70% chance of the fourth rate hike for December.
Milling-Stanley says the confidence is falling that the United States central bank will keep raising interest rates past this year. He explains inflation pressures are not roaring higher. This suggests there is limited economic growth in moving forward. Early on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce said its Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the favored inflation measure of the Federal Reserve rose to 2% for the first time in six years.
Keeping the emerging markets in mind, Milling-Stanley says the global demand for gold could increase as consumers buy the precious metal to combat the current debasement in their currencies.
It’s possible we could see a substantial global gold demand for the rest of the year, according to Milling-Stanley.
He also mentioned his prediction of gold prices pushing even higher later in the year as investors look more into geopolitical turmoil as the United States comes up on the November mid-term elections.